It’s that time of year when technology pundits across industries pull together their best and boldest predictions for the future. And while even I occasionally like to take a look at the proverbial crystal ball, I want to take a slightly different approach this year. Instead of proposing predictions based on trends that are already in play, I’d like to encourage us all to embark on the year ahead with a few resolutions in mind.
I often speak or write about a “co-economy,” an approach and world in which businesses, both large and small, and technology specialists across various disciplines work together to co-develop innovative solutions for both customers and society at large. You could think of the co-economy as a mindset, a process or a value proposition by which organizations partner with other organizations — or even customers — to bring together unique and varied perspectives and skills, talent and resources to accomplish anything from a one-off project to an ongoing set of solutions. Long gone are the days when platform providers and their developer ecosystems went off in their own corners to assemble disparate technologies. The co-economy approach treats technology providers and customers as equals, with everyone contributing to the development of new solutions based on open standards and open systems that are interoperable. Let me explain.
If we look back, one of my 2018 technology predictions envisaged that the internet of things (IoT) would drive this co-economy approach, bringing together multiple players to successfully deploy connected technologies. This prediction came true (to an extent), as evidenced by the positive affirmations from the hundreds of IoT practitioners I’ve met over the course of the year, as well as the accelerated moves by key vertical and horizontal vendors to open up their architectures. And now, these same practitioners are exploring distributed technologies such as blockchain or fog computing, along with artificial intelligence (AI) systems, with a co-economy mindset.
While the co-economy has yet to become a household phrase, I expect 25% of Fortune 1000 companies to experiment and adopt this model this year. As such, I encourage practitioners and organizations across the board to commit to the following New Year’s resolutions:
Resolution 1: Let Go Of Incremental Thinking, And Embrace New Models
I predict that the fully integrated vertical or horizontal provider model will slowly, but surely, cease to exist. Building on top of recently opened systems and the momentum to consolidate standards and make them truly interoperable, these vendors may need to accelerate the adoption of co-economy principles within their strategies and operations.
On one hand, this shift will likely lead to more specialized companies — from horizontal experts in edge security to vertical experts in predictive maintenance in oil and gas. On the other hand, these companies may need to rethink the basics, from their cultures and processes to their business key performance indicators (KPIs), as the deliverable will likely no longer be an individual product but an integrated solution. I predict that industrial and building automation vendors will set the pace for this change in the new year, serving as an example for other vertical industries.
Resolution 2: Rethink Your Role In Society
Lately, technology companies have been doing a bit of soul-searching as they shift and redefine their roles as broader influencers. As such, I believe that many companies will rethink how to approach business goals and corporate social responsibility (CSR). As Kate Raworth argues in her book, Doughnut Economics, societal goals in addition to growth and profit objectives need to find their way into corporate KPIs. We’ve already seen some large multinationals take positive steps in this direction. For example, Royal Dutch Shell plans to link executive pay with short-term carbon emissions targets.
The co-economy model will likely spark a new kind of CSR that goes beyond annual contributions to charity. I believe such efforts should not only become intertwined with company mission statements, but they also should emerge as business KPIs. Positive quarterly earnings can’t be the only goals for tech leaders — bettering society at large will likely increasingly become a customer expectation. In 2019, I’m optimistic that more technology companies will resolve to focus on solving some of our world’s age-old problems, from poverty and hunger to pollution and disease. After all, the U.N.’s latest report on global warming predicts that the likely 1.5-degree Celsius temperature increase could be more devastating than previously thought.
Resolution 3: Leverage Technology To Address Globalization Limitations
The co-economy is creating a shift in business structures. In the past few decades, industries have been evolving from vertical integration to horizontal integration and then to globalization. Recent regional and national focuses have been pitted as alternatives to globalization. In 2019, I believe a structural shift needs to emerge, and companies need to blend together globalism and regionalism, enabled by technology.
Today, we move goods and their components many times across the globe as part of complex supply chains. Tomorrow, I believe our businesses need to instead move more bytes globally and enable producers to make goods locally by leveraging best practices and standards. Silicon Valley startup Plenty is doing just that. The company is adapting new technology along with global standards to grow crops locally in indoor vertical farms. This can eliminate superfluous steps in the supply chain, making our food supply more resilient, reducing food waste and increasing food shelf life. Origin is making similar strides by taking an open approach to additive manufacturing and combining open materials, extensible software and modular hardware.
To enable these new business models, organizations can get help from a family of interconnected, transformational technologies, including IoT, blockchain, AI and fog computing. In particular, decentralized capabilities offered by blockchain can allow for the consistent sharing and analysis of relevant, local data, while driving trusted collaboration across partner ecosystems. With partner ecosystems of regional, vertical and horizontal specialists adhering to global standards, these technologies could open new doors for “fixing” globalization.
In 2019, I challenge all of us to embrace the co-economy model, build new partner networks and embrace open cultures, skills and processes. As we do so, let’s also resolve to rethink our businesses’ missions and KPIs.